Atlas · Human Capital · Capital Flows

Capital flow projections — Monte Carlo bands

3 published runs. Lead-run feudalism probability 24.1%. Gini bands P5–P95 below. Inversion probability 99.75%.

What's projected

Capital concentration trajectories under varying parameters of AI productivity capture, redistribution policy, and labor market dynamics. Each projection_id is a separate Monte Carlo run with declared parameters; contrast across runs is where parameter sensitivity lives.

Gini band — lead run

0.044
P5 (best)
0.101
P25
0.173
P50 median
0.243
P75
0.315
P95 (worst)

All published runs

Projection IDTypeFeudalism probInversion probCap-concentration
monte_carlo_v1monte_carlo_simulation24.1%99.8%
game_theory_v1game_theory_analysis
intervention_timing_v1intervention_timing_analysis

How to read these

Don't read these as a forecast. Read them as sensitivity analysis: given declared parameters, what range of outcomes does the model produce? The wider the band, the more parameter-dependent the question, and the more cautious any policy claim should be.