Atlas · Human Capital · Pay Projections

What human capital actually pays

82,522 SOC × NAICS rows from BLS OEWS + 14,259 program-credentials from the College Scorecard. The top of each distribution shows where AI displacement risk meets professional protection.

Top wages by SOC × industry (BLS OEWS)

SOCIndustryMedian annual wageEmployment
29-1216621400$239,1203,220
29-1223999200$238,9701,400
29-1216621100$238,77034,610
11-1011331200$238,77040
11-1010331200$238,77040
23-1000516200$237,810950
23-1010516200$237,810950
23-1011516200$237,810950
29-1215621500$237,66080
29-1210622200$237,6303,880
11-3121488300$237,600
11-3120488300$237,600
29-1215621400$236,7007,310
23-1010336300$236,51070
23-1000336300$236,51070

Top program earnings (1yr median, College Scorecard)

ProgramCredentialMedian 1yr earnings
Advanced/Graduate Dentistry and Oral Sciences.First Professional Degree$272,682
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing ResearchDoctoral Degree$259,426
Advanced/Graduate Dentistry and Oral Sciences.Master's Degree$250,706
Advanced/Graduate Dentistry and Oral Sciences.Master's Degree$247,820
Advanced/Graduate Dentistry and Oral Sciences.Master's Degree$246,053
Advanced/Graduate Dentistry and Oral Sciences.Graduate/Professional Certific$243,437
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing ResearchDoctoral Degree$240,887
Advanced/Graduate Dentistry and Oral Sciences.Master's Degree$238,129
Advanced/Graduate Dentistry and Oral Sciences.Master's Degree$233,908
Advanced/Graduate Dentistry and Oral Sciences.Master's Degree$231,815

The pattern

The very top of both distributions is dominated by professionally-protected fields (medicine, dentistry, law) — categories where licensing requirements create labor-market frictions that AI alone cannot dissolve. The middle of the distribution is where AI exposure is highest. Pay projections without this distinction overstate aggregate AI risk and understate within-occupation polarization.