Causality Chain · Audit Detail
Brexit + Scottish Independence Momentum
brexit_devolutionary_cascade · order-2 · AP HuG subtopic 4.9 · status rated
A
Composite 11.00 / confidence high
Grade A: 3 sources, source_quality_avg=5.00, corroboration=1, claim_strength=3, geo_specific=1, counter_evidence_handled=no.
The historical event
Brexit + Scottish Independence Momentum · 2016 · United Kingdom
Brexit referendum 52-48 unleashed Scottish independence + Northern Ireland reunification pressure; documented devolutionary cascade.
📚
Causal trigger + effect
Trigger
Card(s):
devolutionary_movementConditions:
{'requires_held_card': 'ethnic_enclave'}Threshold:
—Effect
Type:
auto_play_cardPayload:
{'card_id': 'balkanization'}Target: self
Delay turns: 4
Methodology subscores
| Dimension | Score |
|---|---|
| Source quality (avg) | 5.0 |
| Corroboration (independent sources) | 1 |
| Causal-claim strength | 3 |
| Counter-evidence handling | 0 |
| Geographic specificity | 1 |
| Temporal scope | 1 |
Primary sources (3)
Goodwin, M. & Heath, O., 'The 2016 Referendum, Brexit and the Left Behind', Political Quarterly 87(3) 2016
Type:
peer_reviewed · Year: 2016 · Geography: United KingdomGeography of Brexit vote tied to deindustrialization + immigration cleavages.
Henderson, A. et al., 'England, Englishness and Brexit', Political Quarterly 87(2) 2017
Type:
peer_reviewed · Year: 2017 · Geography: EnglandEnglish identity politics, not just economics, drove Leave vote; relevant to devolutionary dynamics.
Keating, M., 'State and Regional Nationalism: Territorial Politics and the European State', Harvester 2017
Type:
peer_reviewed · Year: 2017 · Geography: Western EuropeTheoretical framing of devolution-vs-integration tension; pre-Brexit synthesis.
Counter-evidence (0)
No counter-evidence noted. Trellison reserves the right to escalate this chain to "needs counter-evidence review" if challenges emerge.
Audit metadata
Audit ID:
0a471ec6ea9e4259b3bd227664ac15abAudit date: 2026-05-14T05:54:30.016863+00:00
Protocol version:
v1.0Rater: claude_sprint2_auto
Corroborating independent count: 1