Methodology · Audit Library
Causality Chain Library
Every chain in the Forces card-game cascade engine, methodology-rated by Trellison. We grade how well-supported each historical-causality claim is, not whether you should believe the conclusion. Source quality + corroboration + counter-evidence handling + geographic specificity + temporal scope → composite A–F.
What "Trellison-rated" means
The audit IS the product. Each chain below was scored on six dimensions:
- Source quality average — peer-reviewed (5) > gov-dataset (4) > primary-historical (4) > journalistic (2) > gray-literature (1)
- Corroboration — number of independent geographies and decades represented in the source set (capped at 3)
- Causal-claim strength — calibrated to chain order. Order-2 claims need direct evidence; order-4 claims need aggregate trend evidence with multiple sources
- Counter-evidence handling — +1 for chains that acknowledge legitimate counter-narratives; 0 for chains that don't
- Geographic specificity — +1 for named region/country; 0 for continental; –1 for undated/global without anchor
- Temporal scope — +1 for dated event; 0 for multi-decade trend; –1 for undated
Composite ≥ 11 = A · ≥ 8.5 = B · ≥ 6.5 = C · ≥ 4 = D · < 4 = F. We rate the methodology, not the conclusion.
All chains (20)
| Grade | Chain | Order | Historical Event | Geography | CED | Sources | Composite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | oil_crisis_threshold_fire | 4 | 1973 OPEC Oil Embargo 1973 |
OPEC member states + Western importers | 7.5 |
3 | 14.00 |
| A | china_one_child_pyramid_inversion | 4 | China One-Child Policy 1980-2015 1980 |
China | 2.3 |
3 | 12.00 |
| A | highway_act_suburbanization | 3 | US Federal-Aid Highway Act 1956 1956 |
United States | 6.4 |
3 | 12.00 |
| A | white_flight_redlining | 3 | HOLC Redlining + FHA Mortgage Segregation 1937 |
US metropolitan areas | 6.5 |
3 | 12.00 |
| A | ottoman_unraveling | 2 | Ottoman Empire Dissolution 1908 |
Anatolia + Balkans + Levant + Mesopotamia | 4.10 |
3 | 12.00 |
| A | dust_bowl_climate_migration | 2 | US Dust Bowl 1930-1940 1930 |
US Great Plains (OK, KS, TX panhandle, CO, NM) | 5.10 |
3 | 12.00 |
| A | silicon_valley_innovation_cluster | 5 | Silicon Valley as Global Tech Magnet 1956 |
Santa Clara County, California | 7.6 |
3 | 12.00 |
| A | gr_groundwater_depletion | 4 | Punjab Groundwater Crisis 2009 |
Punjab, India | 5.5 |
3 | 11.67 |
| A | borlaug_dwarf_wheat | 2 | Borlaug Dwarf Wheat in Mexico/India/Pakistan 1965 |
Mexico → India → Pakistan | 5.5 |
3 | 11.67 |
| A | lingua_franca_internet_english | 4 | English as Global Lingua Franca 1983 |
Global | 3.6 |
3 | 11.67 |
| A | containerization_rust_belt | 3 | Rust Belt Deindustrialization 1970 |
US Great Lakes / NE England / Ruhr / Wallonia | 7.6 |
3 | 11.00 |
| A | external_threat_balkanization_rebound | 2 | Yugoslav Dissolution post-Cold War 1991 |
Former Yugoslavia | 4.10 |
3 | 11.00 |
| A | brexit_devolutionary_cascade | 2 | Brexit + Scottish Independence Momentum 2016 |
United Kingdom | 4.9 |
3 | 11.00 |
| A | kerala_model_demographic_transition | 3 | Kerala Model — DTM Stage 4 without Industrialization 1980 |
Kerala, India | 2.5 |
3 | 11.00 |
| A | gentrification_displacement | 3 | Brooklyn/SF/East London Gentrification 1990 |
NYC + SF Bay Area + East London | 6.6 |
3 | 11.00 |
| A | partition_of_india_refugee_cascade | 2 | Partition of India 1947 1947 |
British India → India + Pakistan | 4.10 |
3 | 11.00 |
| B | outsourcing_brain_drain | 3 | India IT Outsourcing → Reverse Brain Drain 1995 |
Bangalore, India + Silicon Valley | 2.11 |
3 | 10.67 |
| B | demographic_transition_dividend | 3 | East Asian Demographic Dividend 1965 |
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore | 2.4 |
3 | 10.67 |
| B | climate_refugees_threshold | 4 | Climate Migration Threshold — Bangladesh/Sahel 2009 |
Bangladesh delta + Sahel | 2.7 |
3 | 10.33 |
| B | maquiladora_border_industrialization | 3 | Mexico Maquiladora Program 1965 |
Mexico-US border (Ciudad Juárez, Tijuana, Reynosa) | 7.3 |
3 | 10.00 |
How chains are used in gameplay
Each rated chain feeds the Forces cascade engine. When a player plays a card that matches a chain's trigger, the engine fires 2nd/3rd/4th-order historical effects with the Trellison grade visible on the cascade card. Try the engine: api.daedarch.ai/games/forces/cascade-demo.