Causality Chain · Audit Detail
China One-Child Policy 1980-2015
china_one_child_pyramid_inversion · order-4 · AP HuG subtopic 2.3 · status rated
A
Composite 12.00 / confidence high
Grade A: 3 sources, source_quality_avg=5.00, corroboration=2, claim_strength=3, geo_specific=1, counter_evidence_handled=no.
The historical event
China One-Child Policy 1980-2015 · 1980 · China
Forced fertility decline to ~1.5; cohort imbalance + sex-selective practices created 30M-male surplus + dependency-ratio inversion by 2025.
📚
Causal trigger + effect
Trigger
Card(s): — (threshold-only)
Conditions:
—Threshold:
{'global_plays_geq': {'demographic_transition_dividend': 2}}Effect
Type:
spawn_event_card_in_all_handsPayload:
{'card_id': 'sex_ratio_distortion', 'card_type': 'event'}Target: all_players
Delay turns: 3
Methodology subscores
| Dimension | Score |
|---|---|
| Source quality (avg) | 5.0 |
| Corroboration (independent sources) | 2 |
| Causal-claim strength | 3 |
| Counter-evidence handling | 0 |
| Geographic specificity | 1 |
| Temporal scope | 1 |
Primary sources (3)
Greenhalgh, S., 'Just One Child: Science and Policy in Deng's China', UC Press 2008
Type:
peer_reviewed · Year: 2008 · Geography: ChinaDefinitive account of policy origins; documented scientific debate + implementation.
Cai, Y., 'China's New Demographic Reality: Learning from the 2010 Census', Population and Development Review 39(3) 2013
Type:
peer_reviewed · Year: 2013 · Geography: ChinaCensus-based analysis of fertility decline + sex ratio at birth; quantified missing-girls cohort.
Hesketh, T. & Zhu, W.X., 'Abnormal Sex Ratios in Human Populations: Causes and Consequences', PNAS 103(36) 2006
Type:
peer_reviewed · Year: 2006 · Geography: China + IndiaCross-national comparison of sex ratio distortion; linked to son-preference + ultrasound availability.
Counter-evidence (0)
No counter-evidence noted. Trellison reserves the right to escalate this chain to "needs counter-evidence review" if challenges emerge.
Audit metadata
Audit ID:
9d5af262e21948fcb8b0fb6f9ee2c063Audit date: 2026-05-14T05:54:28.401973+00:00
Protocol version:
v1.0Rater: claude_sprint2_auto
Corroborating independent count: 2