Causality Chain · Audit Detail
East Asian Demographic Dividend
demographic_transition_dividend · order-3 · AP HuG subtopic 2.4 · status rated
B
Composite 10.67 / confidence high
Grade B: 3 sources, source_quality_avg=4.67, corroboration=2, claim_strength=2, geo_specific=1, counter_evidence_handled=no.
The historical event
East Asian Demographic Dividend · 1965 · Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore
Falling fertility + bulge cohort of working-age adults → 30-40 years of growth dividend across East Asia 1965-2000.
📚 Bloom & Williamson 1998 + Lee & Mason 2010
Causal trigger + effect
Trigger
Card(s):
green_revolutionConditions:
{'requires_held_card': 'industrial_park'}Threshold:
—Effect
Type:
pop_pressure_deltaPayload:
{'delta': 2, 'target_segment': 'working_age'}Target: self
Delay turns: 10
Methodology subscores
| Dimension | Score |
|---|---|
| Source quality (avg) | 4.67 |
| Corroboration (independent sources) | 2 |
| Causal-claim strength | 2 |
| Counter-evidence handling | 0 |
| Geographic specificity | 1 |
| Temporal scope | 1 |
Primary sources (3)
Bloom, D. & Williamson, J., 'Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia', World Bank Economic Review 12(3) 1998
Type:
peer_reviewed · Year: 1998 · Geography: East AsiaQuantified demographic dividend contribution to East Asian growth 1965-1990 at 1.4-1.9pp annual.
Lee, R. & Mason, A., 'Generational Economics in a Changing World', Population and Development Review 36 2010
Type:
peer_reviewed · Year: 2010 · Geography: Global comparativeCross-country accounting of demographic dividend phases; identified ~30-year window per country.
World Bank, 'East Asian Miracle', 1993 (gov_dataset)
Type:
gov_dataset · Year: 1993 · Geography: East AsiaWorld Bank policy report establishing East Asian growth narrative.
Counter-evidence (0)
No counter-evidence noted. Trellison reserves the right to escalate this chain to "needs counter-evidence review" if challenges emerge.
Audit metadata
Audit ID:
d670e8ef9bd24d67a9954eb7028f4db1Audit date: 2026-05-14T05:54:27.582831+00:00
Protocol version:
v1.0Rater: claude_sprint2_auto
Corroborating independent count: 2