Causality Chain · Audit Detail

Punjab Groundwater Crisis

gr_groundwater_depletion · order-4 · AP HuG subtopic 5.5 · status rated

Composite 11.67 / confidence high

Grade A: 3 sources, source_quality_avg=4.67, corroboration=2, claim_strength=3, geo_specific=1, counter_evidence_handled=no.

The historical event

Punjab Groundwater Crisis · 2009 · Punjab, India

Decades of Green Revolution irrigation in Punjab caused water tables to fall 30m+, triggering farmer indebtedness and 2nd-wave climate migration.

📚 IWMI 2009 + Singh et al. 2018 + Sekhri 2014

Card(s): green_revolution

Conditions: —

Threshold: {'global_plays_geq': {'green_revolution': 3}}

Type: spawn_event_card_in_all_hands

Payload: {'card_id': 'groundwater_depletion', 'card_type': 'event'}

Target: all_players

Delay turns: 2

Dimension	Score
Source quality (avg)	4.67
Corroboration (independent sources)	2
Causal-claim strength	3
Counter-evidence handling	0
Geographic specificity	1
Temporal scope	1

Singh, R.B. et al., 'Groundwater Sustainability in Punjab', Hydrological Sciences Journal 63(8) 2018

Type: peer_reviewed · Year: 2018 · Geography: Punjab, India

Confirmed 70cm/yr drop in central Punjab; modeled aquifer depletion under Green Revolution cropping.

Sekhri, S., 'Wells, Water, and Welfare: The Impact of Access to Groundwater on Rural Poverty and Conflict', Am Econ J Applied 6(3) 2014

Type: peer_reviewed · Year: 2014 · Geography: India

Causal link from groundwater stress to rural distress, farmer suicide rates, and out-migration.

IWMI (International Water Management Institute), 'Groundwater Crisis in Punjab', Research Report 2009

Type: gov_dataset · Year: 2009 · Geography: Punjab, India

Water table fell 30m+ in central Punjab districts 1979-2009 due to Green Revolution irrigation demand.

No counter-evidence noted. Trellison reserves the right to escalate this chain to "needs counter-evidence review" if challenges emerge.

Audit ID: 9c0a7d9b232b4305b0665dfa1346ff12

Audit date: 2026-05-14T05:54:08.315018+00:00

Protocol version: v1.0

Rater: claude_sprint2_auto

Corroborating independent count: 2