Causality Chain · Audit Detail
Kerala Model — DTM Stage 4 without Industrialization
kerala_model_demographic_transition · order-3 · AP HuG subtopic 2.5 · status rated
A
Composite 11.00 / confidence high
Grade A: 3 sources, source_quality_avg=5.00, corroboration=2, claim_strength=2, geo_specific=1, counter_evidence_handled=no.
The historical event
Kerala Model — DTM Stage 4 without Industrialization · 1980 · Kerala, India
Kerala reached low-income high-development outcomes (literacy >90%, life expectancy 75+, TFR <2) by 1990 via female education + land reform + universal healthcare, NOT industrialization.
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Causal trigger + effect
Trigger
Card(s):
shared_languageConditions:
{'requires_held_card': 'civil_religion', 'min_dtm_stage': 2}Threshold:
—Effect
Type:
pop_pressure_deltaPayload:
{'delta': 1, 'target_segment': 'educated_workforce', 'note': 'social_development_path'}Target: self
Delay turns: 5
Methodology subscores
| Dimension | Score |
|---|---|
| Source quality (avg) | 5.0 |
| Corroboration (independent sources) | 2 |
| Causal-claim strength | 2 |
| Counter-evidence handling | 0 |
| Geographic specificity | 1 |
| Temporal scope | 1 |
Primary sources (3)
Drèze, J. & Sen, A., 'India: Economic Development and Social Opportunity', Oxford UP 1995
Type:
peer_reviewed · Year: 1995 · Geography: India (Kerala focus)Foundational analysis of Kerala outcomes vs other Indian states; Sen-Nobel laureate co-author.
Franke, R. & Chasin, B., 'Kerala: Radical Reform as Development in an Indian State', Food First 1989
Type:
peer_reviewed · Year: 1989 · Geography: KeralaDocumented land reform + literacy programs as engines of Kerala social indicators.
Parayil, G. (ed), 'Kerala: The Development Experience', Zed Books 2000
Type:
peer_reviewed · Year: 2000 · Geography: KeralaMulti-author critical reappraisal; acknowledged limitations (slow growth, migration dependence).
Counter-evidence (0)
No counter-evidence noted. Trellison reserves the right to escalate this chain to "needs counter-evidence review" if challenges emerge.
Audit metadata
Audit ID:
b1b666e7fcc04ca0ab55723462a0e648Audit date: 2026-05-14T05:54:33.286856+00:00
Protocol version:
v1.0Rater: claude_sprint2_auto
Corroborating independent count: 2