Causality Chain · Audit Detail
1973 OPEC Oil Embargo
oil_crisis_threshold_fire · order-4 · AP HuG subtopic 7.5 · status rated
A
Composite 14.00 / confidence high
Grade A: 3 sources, source_quality_avg=5.00, corroboration=3, claim_strength=3, geo_specific=1, counter_evidence_handled=yes.
The historical event
1973 OPEC Oil Embargo · 1973 · OPEC member states + Western importers
When global industrial development reached critical threshold, oil-exporting states leveraged supply concentration; 1973-1979 oil shocks triggered stagflation and post-industrial restructuring.
📚 Yergin 1991 (The Prize) + Kuran 1989 + Mitchell 2011 (Carbon Democracy)
Causal trigger + effect
Trigger
Card(s): — (threshold-only)
Conditions:
—Threshold:
{'global_dev_index_geq': 6}Effect
Type:
auto_play_cardPayload:
{'card_id': 'oil_crisis'}Target: highest_dev_player
Delay turns: 0
Methodology subscores
| Dimension | Score |
|---|---|
| Source quality (avg) | 5.0 |
| Corroboration (independent sources) | 3 |
| Causal-claim strength | 3 |
| Counter-evidence handling | 1 |
| Geographic specificity | 1 |
| Temporal scope | 1 |
Primary sources (3)
Yergin, D., 'The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power', Simon & Schuster 1991
Type:
peer_reviewed · Year: 1991 · Geography: OPEC + OECDComprehensive history of 1973 OPEC embargo; documented threshold-driven supply leverage.
Mitchell, T., 'Carbon Democracy: Political Power in the Age of Oil', Verso 2011
Type:
peer_reviewed · Year: 2011 · Geography: GlobalLinked oil supply chains to political power structures; explained 1973 embargo as systemic event.
Hamilton, J., 'Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II', J Political Economy 91(2) 1983
Type:
peer_reviewed · Year: 1983 · Geography: US + OECDStatistical link from oil shocks to recessions; established threshold-effects on industrial economies.
Counter-evidence (1)
1979 Iranian Revolution oil shock equally or more important than 1973 OPEC embargo for long-run effects
Source: Hamilton 1983 · Weight:
minorAudit metadata
Audit ID:
d492d12fe6c7401ba41c86b0db18222fAudit date: 2026-05-14T05:54:10.494118+00:00
Protocol version:
v1.0Rater: claude_sprint2_auto
Corroborating independent count: 3