In progress · In co-author review
Paper 5 — Universal Verification Framework
Inference-Agnostic Conformal Bounds for Continuous Physical Asset Verification
Abel Gutu (LedgerWell Corporation) and Robert Stillwell (LedgerWell Corporation / DaedArch Corporation)
Abstract
A framework for evaluating continuous physical asset verification systems, applicable across arbitrary asset classes and inference methods, with particular application to tokenized collateral under Basel SCO60. The framework introduces a Verification Complexity Index quantifying the difficulty of verifying any given asset class, a Three-Layer Verification Evidence Package combining posterior estimates with diagnostic and conformal coverage guarantees, a Nyquist-style verification bound separating continuous monitoring from periodic audit regimes, and a Cramér-Rao precision floor establishing minimum achievable verification accuracy. The Universal Scaling Laws derivation (the framework’s first instantiation, presented as Appendix A in the manuscript) is recontextualised here as a worked example of the broader conformal-bounds framework.
Research questions this paper addresses
- Across arbitrary asset classes, how do we measure verification difficulty in a way that is robust to changes in inference method?
- What conformal coverage guarantees can we make when the inference family itself is unknown or changing?
- When does sensing-based continuous verification dominate periodic audit, and what is the precision floor at the crossover?
- How does this framework satisfy Basel SCO60 Group 1a verification eligibility while remaining inference-agnostic?