Dr. Thales West

Methodology focus

Assistant Professor at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM). Principal author of the 2023 Science study that used synthetic-control methods to demonstrate REDD+ projects produce vastly fewer real emission reductions than claimed — the paper that triggered the voluntary carbon market's 2023–24 integrity crisis.

Trellison / LedgerWell intersection. Methodology authority on retrospective verification — exactly what proof packs produce.

Affiliation

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Role

Assistant Professor

Axis

Integrity Critics

Tier

Tier 1

Selected publications

2023 — Overstated carbon emission reductions from voluntary REDD+ projects in the Brazilian Amazon. PNAS.
2023 — Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation. Science.
2024 — Methodological failures in forest-based carbon crediting. Nature Climate Change.
2024-2026 — Ongoing work on synthetic controls for REDD+ and AFOLU projects. multiple venues.

Alignment with proof packs

Their methodology / role	Proof-pack / Trellison fit
Synthetic-control methodology for offset validation	Proof pack integrates counterfactual and synthetic-control inputs per tonne
Remote-sensing-based deforestation measurement	Proof pack includes satellite-derived biomass signatures with uncertainty
Retrospective methodology audit	Proof-pack audit chain enables after-the-fact methodology re-evaluation

Collaboration concepts

Concept 1

Proof-pack reference implementation for REDD+ synthetic controls

West's methodology as the audit standard; Trellison tooling as the operational pipeline. Target: Science / Nature.

Concept 2

Retrospective audit of 100 REDD+ projects with proof-pack schema

Operationalise West's critique across a larger sample using standardised proof-pack outputs.

Concept 3

IVM / Trellison joint workshop on AFOLU MRV standards

European workshop co-hosted with IVM and Wageningen (Keesstra).

Outreach approach

Proposed opening message

Subject: A reference implementation for your integrity thesis

Dear Thales West,

We have been reading your published critique of carbon market integrity as a design specification rather than commentary. Trellison Institute has been building a per-tonne open-data verification instrument — we call the artefact a proof pack — that tries to implement what your work argues for.

I would welcome a 30-minute conversation to show you the current alpha. We are not asking for endorsement; we are asking for methodology critique and, if useful, an offer of alpha access for your active work. Independent negative evaluations would be published alongside positive ones.

A one-page methodology brief that maps your work to proof-pack schema fields — with gaps flagged honestly — is attached.

With respect,
Rob Stillwell
Director, Trellison Institute

What we do not ask for

Endorsement of Trellison, LedgerWell, DaedArch, or any affiliated entity.
Exclusivity or first-look rights on research findings.
Unpaid labour. Any advisor role is compensated with a modest honorarium and disclosed on the record.

Disclosure: Compiled from public sources through April 2026. Inclusion does not imply endorsement, affiliation, or reciprocal interest. Corrections: About.

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